Quarterback
The most overdrafted position. Wait.
Quarterback is the most overdrafted position in fantasy football. You only start one. The position is deep. The gap between elite and mid-tier QBs is smaller than at any other skill position. Smart drafters wait. Here's why and how.
The Math
The top 12 QBs in a typical season average roughly 22-26 fantasy points per game. The top 6 average 24-27. The difference between QB1 and QB12 is usually 3-4 points per game.
Compare:
- RB1 vs RB12: 7-10 points per game gap
- TE1 vs TE12: 6-8 points per game gap
- QB1 vs QB12: 3-4 points per game gap
The marginal value of an elite QB over a mid-tier QB is small. Spending a Round 3 pick on a top QB means you missed out on an elite RB or WR, and that RB or WR upgrade is bigger than the QB upgrade.
Scoring
| Stat | Points |
|---|---|
| Passing yard | 0.04 |
| Passing TD | +4 |
| Interception | −2 |
| Rushing yard | 0.1 |
| Rushing TD | +6 |
| Fumble lost | −1 |
The 0.04 per passing yard is the killer. A QB with 300 passing yards picks up 12 points on yardage alone. Add 2 TDs and you're at 20. This is why even average QBs put up decent fantasy weeks.
Rushing QBs Are Worth More
A QB who rushes for 50 yards and a TD gets 11 fantasy points on rushing alone. Add his passing stats and you're in elite territory. That's why mobile QBs are usually the most valuable fantasy QBs, they have two ways to score.
Things to look for:
- 50+ rushing yards per game
- Goal-line rushing role (short TD runs)
- Scramble tendency (broken plays into rushing yards)
- Designed runs in the scheme
A pocket passer averaging 250 yards and 2 TDs scores around 18 points a game. A mobile QB averaging 230 yards, 1.5 TDs, 40 rushing yards, and 0.3 rushing TDs scores around 20. And he's got a higher ceiling.
Draft Strategy
Late-round QB (the move)
Wait until Rounds 7-10. By then most of the elite WRs and RBs are gone, but plenty of solid QBs are still available. Your Round 9 QB will score within 2-3 points per game of the Round 3 QB, and you saved a high pick for a position with bigger talent gaps.
Elite QB (only if it falls)
Take a top-3 QB in Round 4-5 if one drops to you. Only do this if a clear tier-1 option is sitting there, an elite rushing QB on a strong offense. Even then you're paying a premium.
Streaming QB
Skip QB until the last 2-3 rounds. Take a QB with a great Week 1 matchup. Stream weekly. Aggressive but works if WR and RB depth is unusually good in your draft.
Two-QB strategy
Draft your QB1 in Round 9-10, then a second QB1 in Round 12-13. Start whichever has the better weekly matchup. Cuts variance but uses an extra roster spot.
Weekly Decisions
Most weeks the QB call is easy, you only start one. It gets interesting in three situations:
Two startable QBs. Pick the better matchup. Opposing defense rank vs QB. A QB facing the worst pass defense is almost always the better play.
Your QB is on bye. If you only carry one QB you need a streamer that week. Look for a QB with a great matchup somehow still available. This is why some managers carry a second QB, bye-week safety.
Your QB is questionable. Risky. With a healthy backup, sit the questionable. Without, you're forced to hope. Always claim a streamer off waivers as insurance when your QB1 has injury news.
What Makes an Elite QB
- Volume. 30+ pass attempts a game. High-volume offenses produce high-scoring QBs even with average efficiency.
- TD rate. 2+ TD passes per game. Partly luck, partly schematic.
- Rushing floor. 40+ rushing yards a game. The biggest separator between elite and mid-tier.
- Supporting cast. Elite WRs and TEs catching his passes. A QB throwing to mediocre receivers struggles.
- Pass-first scheme. Teams that throw 35+ times a game produce QB gold mines.
Common Mistakes
Drafting a top-3 QB in Round 1 or 2. Almost never right.
Reaching for a name-brand QB at his old peak value. Past production rarely repeats. Trust current trends.
Holding a struggling QB too long. Four bad weeks in a row? Stream off the wire. Sunk cost is real.
Ignoring matchups. Even elite QBs have bad games against shutdown pass defenses. A streamer with a better matchup can outscore your "name" QB.
Forgetting that QBs play 17 weeks. Consistency over a long season matters more than ceiling. The QB averaging 22 with low variance beats the QB averaging 24 with a 6-point bust week.
MFL Notes
The Madden ratings affect QB performance. A 90-OVR accurate QB is more reliable than a 75-OVR high-variance one. Check the Stats Hub for:
- Pass accuracy, affects completions and YPA
- Throw power, affects deep-ball connection
- Speed and acceleration, predicts scramble yards
- Awareness, affects INT rate
- Toughness, affects injury likelihood
Madden OVR is a good first filter. Usage and scheme matter more for weekly production.
Related
Positions index for all 7 roster spots. RB, WR, TE for other skill positions. Draft Strategy for full draft tactics. Scoring for complete rules.